I always like to travel during the holiday season, but this year I’ve been slow to book flights for November and December. And now, I regret it.
A couple of months ago, fares for New Year's Eve to various destinations in the Caribbean were trending around $800 round-trip. I thought I could do better, so I waited. Now, flights for the same dates are roughly $2,000.
Lesson learned: always book holiday airfare as early as possible. And experts now say the absolute cutoff for finding a reasonable price is Halloween.
According to Points Path data published by The Points Guy, domestic fares for flights between the year-end holidays ( December 18 and January 3) are tracking about 18 percent higher than last year. And for international fares, that goes up to 19 percent. Thanksgiving isn’t quite as bad, but it's still not great at 13 percent over 2025 numbers.
That means you don’t have much more time to book holiday airfare. Here’s what you need to know about booking a flight this holiday season. Spoiler alert: this isn't the year to wait for a deal.
In this article
Why Fares Are Running Hot This Year
Holiday fares are always expensive, but this year, they're especially costly.
This is largely due to global wars that have raised jet fuel costs, which airlines then pass on to consumers. According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel averaged $99 per barrel before the war started, but averaged $195 per barrel in mid-September.
Even with rising fuel costs driving up airfares, demand remains. The Points Guy also spoke to airline executives who said customers are willing to pay these higher prices. In other words, carriers really don’t have reason to lower their prices.
And according to Fortune, American Airlines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have all recently said they’re considering cutting low-performing routes due to increased fuel costs.
So what happens when demand is high, capacity is trimmed, and fuel is expensive? Expect higher costs and fewer flights across the board.
Why Halloween Is the Line
If you still don’t believe me, follow the math.
According to Google Flights data, the best time to book cheap flights for domestic Christmas travel is typically about 51 days before departure, within a 32- to 73-day window.
So if you walk that back, the math is simple. If you want to fly on December 23, booking 51 days in advance puts a deadline on November 2—right around Halloween.
Meanwhile, for Thanksgiving, Google found that the lowest prices have historically been 35 days before departure, with a 24- to 59-day window. That means if you want to fly on November 25, you’ll need to book even earlier, by October 21.
Hopper’s 2026 Holiday Travel Index echoes these reports, though their findings are a bit bleaker. Their data suggests holiday airfare is trending 31 percent higher for Thanksgiving and 23 percent higher for Christmas, with average flight prices at a 10-year high. So, no matter what tips and tricks you have up your sleeve, you’ll still need to pay more.
Hopper’s 2026 report also says to book before Halloween, and we agree. Waiting past this point means prices will only keep climbing, and as we get closer to the holidays, availability will become even scarcer, leading to higher last-minute tickets.
Book a Fare You Can Reprice
A basic economy ticket is the wrong choice for a holiday booking.
Yes, it might be the cheapest at face value, but its restrictions could cost you later.
Prices can be volatile, skyrocketing one day and plummeting the next. Always book a ticket that allows changes so you can rebook and keep the difference as credit (or a refund to your original payment method) if the price drops. Basic economy tickets do not allow for this.
Whether you’re tracking a flight or have a ticket booked, set a Google alert for your desired flight.
When it’s at a price you don’t mind paying, book your ticket with the option for a future refund or credit if you cancel. Then, keep an eye on your alert so you can cancel and rebook if the price goes down. There’s no guarantee it’ll get cheaper, but it’s worth the effort.
Date and Airport Moves That Still Save Money
It might not be ideal, but flying on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year's Eve, or New Year's Day is often much cheaper than surrounding dates. This is because those are the days when most people have plans and don’t want to fly.
If you can’t travel then, being flexible will pay off quite literally.
For example, I did an online search and found that if I want to fly from Wilmington (ILM) to Montego Bay (MBJ) on the most popular days of December 28 through January 2, I’m going to pay $2,231.
However, if I fly on New Year's Day and return after the rush on January 6, the price drops to $843—a 62% drop by shifting my dates by four days.
You can also price out nearby airports or consider booking two one-way tickets to potentially save hundreds. Booking one-way tickets allows you to fly the cheapest airline to your destination and a different cheap airline back home, potentially from a different airport.
What To Do if You've Already Missed the Window
If you’re reading this after Halloween, don’t panic.
If cash fares are exorbitant, it’s worth checking your points and miles to see if you can get a deal. They tend to be less volatile than cash fares.
Try to book through programs that offer fixed award charts for the best chances at a cheap fare.
For instance, Delta SkyMiles can vary wildly based on demand, but you can book Delta-operated flights through Virgin Atlantic, which uses a fixed partner award chart. If you can find partner award availability, you’ll spend a set number of Virgin Atlantic points, regardless of whether your Delta flight costs $100 or $1,000.
The Shortcut
This isn't the year to hold out for a deal. The best days to book Thanksgiving come before Halloween, and Christmas follows right after.
Skip basic economy. Book a fare you can change, then keep tracking the price on Google Flights. If it drops, rebook and pocket the difference.
Nobody wants to fly on Christmas Day or New Year's Day, which is why those flights are so much cheaper. Moving one Caribbean trip by four days cut the fare by more than half.
Already missed the window? Check your points. Programs with fixed award charts charge the same whether the cash fare is $100 or $1,000.
